Read Chart, Learn Economic | Yaonology
What happened to the World economy in the past week (10/6/2019-10/12/2019)? Want to know what economics the U.S. has this week? Want to learn the U.S. finance but don’t know how to start? Let’s Read Chart, Learn Economic.
Yaonology has helped you sort out the 5 major economic events that you must know about in the United States even over the World through charts.
Investors are more favor in defensive sectors
The fund flows enter into the defensive stocks since 2018 Q4 and hit a record high in 2019 Q3. Basically, the top 3 inflow sectors are Real Estate, Consumer Staples, and Technology. Nevertheless, the top 3 outflow sectors are Financial, Health Care, and Energy.
Source: Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg Stock Havens Cost More Than Ever, Right When Investors Need Them.
US Auto Loan
Both direct and indirect US auto loan delinquencies continue to rise since 2016 (the year that the Fed starts to increase the funds rate). In addition, auto sales are also under pressure in recent years.
Source: ABA, BEA, Federal Reserve, Recessions Shaded. The Wall Street Journal, The Daily Shot.
The CEO confidence index is the leading indicator of US GDP
In Yaonology Economic Charts Sep 21, 2019, we mentioned that CEOs and CFOs are pessimistic about the economy. Moreover, the figure shows that the CEO confidence index falls to the lowest level since 2011, and it seems like the CEO confidence index is a leading indicator of US GDP.
The CEO confidence index and ISM PMI Export Orders (Last Week Yaonology Economic Charts) are the 3-month leading indicator of Business investment. Therefore, the Business investment might be in trouble in the next 3 months.
Source: Vistage CEO Confidence Index, The Wall Street Journal The Daily Shot, nordeamarkets.com.
August 2019 US Job Openings
US job openings continue to decline since Jan 2019. The US job openings usually increase during the summertime season. Compared with last year, the US job openings drop 4%.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of ST. Louis
Recession in 2020/Read Chart, Learn Economic
We mentioned that there might be a recession in 2020 based on PMI. (Yaonology Economic Charts 2019/10/5). Here is one more evidence that shows that there is a recession in 2020. Furthermore, the chart shows the profit margin at various stages of business cycles. Also, the current cycle is about 80% of the business cycle. (Recession is in 84% of the business cycle. The time might be in 2020.)
* Profit Margin = Net Profit / Revenue
Source: Market Watch, Eroding profit margins will push the US into recession in 2020, leading forecaster says.
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