Read Chart, Learn Economic| Yaonology
What happened to the US economy in the past week? Want to know what economics the US has this week? Want to learn American finance but don’t know how to start? Let’s Read Chart, and Learn Economic.
Yaonology have helped you sort out the 5 major economic events that you must know about in the United States.
Fed Interest Rate
Fed cut interest rates again(1.75% – 2.00%) for the second time this year on Wednesday.
Based on the previous data, SP500 gets a positive return in the next 12 months after the first two rate cuts are 25 basis points.
However, the FOMC appears to be divided on the 2020 implied Fed Funds Target Rate. Almost half Fed board thinks to need to increase the interest rate next year. However, the other half board thinks to need to cut-rate next year. Therefore, this divided situation lets the average rate for next year maintain on the same level. On the other hand, the market bond traders are still leaning toward another Fed Rate Cut. (Blue arrow)
Source: LPL Research, New York Times Why the Fed Lowered Interested Rates Again. Yahoo Finance Bond Traders are still leaning toward another Fed Rate Cut.
2020 US Election Polls
Let’s read chart below and learn economic. Based on the 2020 Senate poll map, Republican is having an upper hand on Senate Election right now.
Source: Washington Post, How the 2020 Senate map is shaping up.
2020 Democratic Presidential Nomination. Biden is leading in RCP Poll Average (28.8).
However, Warren is leading in betting odds 38.1, much higher than the other candidates. Who will be the Democratic nominee in 2020??
The US GDP is going downtrend since 2018. There are two main reasons based on the chart. First, the housing, one of composition, show negative growth for four consecutive seasons. Second, the CAPEX and net exports turn negative in 2019 Q2, because of the US-China trade war.
Source: BlackRock, Where is the U.S. economy headed.
The industrial production is going down and hits the lowest point since 2017.
Source: Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis
What are CEOs and CFOs thinking about economic
CEOs and CFOs are pessimistic about the economy and think the US will be into recession within a year. Moreover, CEO Economic Outlook is going downtrend. Furthermore, capital expenditures and sales expectations are on the downtrend since 2018Q2.
Source: WSJ The Daily Shot, CBS Most CFOs think the US will tumble into recession within a year, Business Roundtable
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